CompuStrike: Will BJ Penn be able to keep it standing?
Posted on February 25, 2011, 12:46 PM by Anton GurevichFormer UFC Welterweight and Lightweight Champion BJ "The Prodigy" Penn will face one of the toughest challenges of his career, fighting "the ultimate grinder" Jon Fitch at the main event of UFC 127 in Sydney, Australia. According to our friends at CompuStrike, Penn is way more efficient on his feet, landing more than twice as many arm strikes as Fitch. However, Jon Fitch is superior in every other aspect of the game, having takedowns and ground strikes as his main weapon.
Here's some key facts:
Fitch landed more than three times as many ground strikes as Penn
Fitch was successful on 64% of his takedown attempts (27 of 42- an avg. of five attempts per fight)
Penn's opponents were successful on just 15 of 58 takedown attempts (26%- with St Pierre accouting for eight of them in their two fights)
Penn attempted just 10 takedowns in 12 fights tracked by CompuStrike, hitting on seven (an avg. of less than one attempt per fight)
So, statistics-wise, the key for BJ Penn's victory in this fight is to avoid takedowns and keep the fight standing. Is it even possible against a takedown machine like Jon Fitch? We'll have to wait for Saturday night to find out. For full CompuStrike UFC 127 Preview please visit CompuStrike.com.
Comments
As much as I like BJ Penn, I doubt that he will be able to keep it standing if the the fight goes past the second round.
I still have BJ VIA TKO or Sub in round 2
Gsp couldn't take Penn down in their second fight until after the 1st round. Fitch isn't as good as GSP. Penn has a chance but he needs to be offensive not play defense all day. Penn also gets robbed in decisions all the time so if it goes to a decision it isn't looking good.
All it takes is one mistake by BJ and he is on his back for the rest of the round.
If Penn is only on offence, he will end up on his back. He has to be on defence while simultaneously attacking.
All it takes is one mistake by Fitch and he gets swept, if Fitch really tries to finish he will make mistakes.
yeah and that mistake was on round 3.
Fotch going for a finsh? ha yeahh right!
i know theres no way, but he keeps saying he is so you never no.
BJ seems over-confident once again. Can we just tell him that he lost via DQ to Hughes so he will actually come out swinging again?
bj will loose sry
bj via rnc
eh no bj wont
It is possible that Fitch is just to big for Penn but Penn tends to be impossible to takedown agaisn't the fence and those who have been able to take him down (mostly Edgar and GSP) are explosive takedown guys that shoot while striking. I am no Fitch expert but it seems to me he prefers to pin someone up against the fence and bully them down.
Maybe Fitch will regret bringing it to the floor once he gets it there.
Penn by triangle?
Fitch is looking favourable because:
Bigger than BJ
Better wrestler
BJ never submitted anybody off his back
Fitch has a solid chin
Fitch is a grinder, BJ tends to fade when the fight ain't going his way
One more thing--Fitch is almost impossible to submit. How many of BJJ blackbelt Paulo Thiago's locked in chokes succeeded?
Well if Edgar can take BJ down then Fitch could too.