Cain Velasquez opens as a 5-1 favorite to defeat Frank Mir at UFC 146
Posted on March 12, 2012, 03:40 PM by Joey Santosus
At UFC 146, former champions Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir will square off to determine the next contender for the Heavyweight throne.
Between two of the division's most formidable fighters, the bout promises to be a competitive one, as Velasquez enters the match-up just one fight removed from his championship reign, and Mir carries the momentum of a three-fight win streak.
According to the oddsmakers, however, fans shouldn't expect a close contest at all. Instead, the gambling gods anticipate a one-sided beatdown, and have Velasquez pegged as a 5-1 favorite to be the one handing out the beating.
Mir, meanwhile, heads into the bout as a +325 underdog.
Though putting up the house on a Heavyweight encounter is never a good idea, if you're a betting man (or lady), there's never been a better time to risk a little cash on Mir.
UFC 146 is set to take place May 26th from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Headlining the stacked card will be a Heavyweight title fight between division Champion Junior dos Santos and challenger Alistair Overeem, while Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir will serve as the co-main event.
Props: Best Fight Odds | Photo: Francis Specker
Comments
I think those odds are a little crazy
I think Cain will win, but I like Frank Mir lot ,I hope that he surprises me and win
hahah anyone could have guessed that lol
Frank Mir might be my favourite fighter but I tell everyone else to be realistic when it comes to their favourite fighters so I shall too.
Mir has great stand up boxing but, honestly, has a weak jaw. He was basically out cold vs. Nog 2, got dropped by Brock at least once, crushed by Carwin and stunned by Nelson.
That being said Cain was rocked by Kongo 2 or 3 times and got ktfo by Junior.
I think Mir has the power to drop Cain and finish with a sub but Cain definitely has the power and speed to KO Frank.
I think either fighter could win by KO but more likely Cain Velasquez.
This may sound crazy but if I was in Frank's camp I would gameplan for him to box for the first minute and then PULL GUARD.
Frank should be able to pull guard with his size advantage and Cain probably wouldn't refuse a takedown.
Frank was G&P crushed by Brock but Cain has been criticized in the past for having pillow punches for G&P.
Valsquez has never had to deal with submission threats, even against Nog. I honestly think Mir could sub him, especially in the first.
Even if he pulls guard and it doesn't work in the first he has 2nd and 3rd to try to stand up with him.
I don't like Mir's Chance either way
even if you pulled guard purposely the judges would probably score it as a takedown, i'd have frank start off standing and only go to pull guard if he knows for sure he's lost the round, you can usually tell whos won a round after three minutes
Tell that to Thiago Alvez
Look at the guys you talk about who rocked/ko's Mir though. Carwin might be the hardest puncher in the UFC and even though Brock doesn't have crisp technique he's got a crap-ton of power, ya Big Nog dropped him huge but he was able to recover pretty quickly and he may not have been quite as badly hurt as it looked (though he clearly was hurt).
The stand up will definitely be interesting, it's one area where they've both improved a lot in over the past couple years.
They're most def. crazy.. i give Cain the edge (a little one) but its a LOTTTT closer than people think. It will by NO MEANS whatsoever surprise me if Mir takes this...
are you taking mir for the odds cause im not
Well, that's no surprise to me. I also see Velasquez winning this one, even tho Mir is very dangerous.
I think Mir's only chance against Valasquez is a submission.
After watching a one punch KO in Cain's last fight you think Mir can't do that?
I think Cain will win but don't sleep on Mir and his heavy hands.
Agreed whitey.
I actually think Mir has a better chance of finishing this fight via KO than submission. Cain is too good a wrestler to allow Frank to take him down, and I think Frank is a more well rounded striker. Neither guy has a great chin so the standup battle could go either way.
Mir hand speed is slow
He throws mostly straight punches though, whereas Cain prefers hooks, and Mir has a slight reach advantage. it might prove to be enough if he doesn't get overwhelmed by an onrushing Cain Velasquez.
It's also not all about hand speed. Mir has nasty knees too.
I think Cain will have advantage in stand and Mir will have advantage on the ground.
lol did u think of that urself :P its pretty obvious
6 months or 1 year ago i would have said that i agree with those odds. But now i feel like it's almost 50/50. I'm curious to see how Velasquez rebounds from his 1st round KO to JDS and Mir is on a great winning streak.
Frank is one of my favourite fighters but I can't say his winning streak is great.
On paper his streak is great but against Nog he was basically out, he dominated Roy (who has been dominated in 3/4 last fights) but gassed in 3rd (Cain won't) and had a less than stellar fight with Cro Cop minus the nice KO. His last perfect performance was against Kongo but that was more than 2 years ago.
I felt he was too confident in the Nog fight and let him take advantage in stand up and would've loss if Nog hadn't went for sub, something Cain definitely won't do.
I believe Mir when he said he was waiting around to see what Nog changed and got caught. I think everyone Nog has fought since his double hip replacement has been astounded at his improved punching power. I predict much better head movement and tactical counterpunching against Cain in the standup.
Cain should fight one more fight after this fight to get a title shot.
I think most would agree that Cain has the advantage standing and Mir has the advantage on the ground. I think Cain will want to keep it on his feet, but I'm wondering how aggressive he'll be. A year ago, Mir might have had almost no chance to take him down, but he's been working on his wrestling a lot since then, so he might be able to now if Cain gets careless. And if Mir gets on top, he seldom needs very long.
Velasquez's cardio is amazing. Mir's is improving, but nothing like Cain's. If the fight goes past round 2, the 5-1 odds are probably fair at that point. Mir had better hope the fight goes to the ground. Cain should keep it standing, and take it into the later rounds.
Agreed here. One way or another, Mir's matches seldom go past the first round. I wouldn't be surprised to see Frank Mir be a slim and trim 240-245 and "cardio'd out of his mind" the way he was for Mir vs. Lesnar 2 to try to combat Cain's freakish cardio.
I actually think Mir's got the advantage in technical striking, but Cain's got the overall advantage in stand up with his explosiveness and (probably?) better chin. (I haven't forgotten how he got so easily rocked by Kongo.) If Mir does rock Velasquez, it'll be interesting to see whether either of them chooses to go for a takedown.
In my mind Mir should either get it to the ground with a takedown and be on top, if he can do that, or pull guard. I think his best chance of winning is by sub.
I think Velasquez should approach this EXACTLY the same as the Nog fight, maybe be a tiny bit more cautious in the stand up as Mir packs heat but still let the hands fly with speed.
I agree with what people have said, especially Keith but I think Frank would do well to lose a little weight / muscle before the fight. Cain will be a lot faster.
5 to 1? I can see Cain as the favorite, but with those odds, Mir is not a bad long shot bet.
That's nuts, in my opinion. Not because Mir deserves more respect, but because he is simply way better than 5:1 implies. This might be a good time for me to pick up gambling!
That is a nasty main and co-main! Can't wait!
As a betting man I would take Krazy Horse over Cain 5 to 1 let alone Mir. If your in the place to make the bet make it. Literally you have nothing to lose. Somebody is being completely overestimated or underestimated here but good fight.
Brock destroy Frank and Cain destroy Brock but....Kongo rock Cain very good and Mir rock Kongo very good too and finished him though. Joking aside but everything can happen. This is not 5:1 for me even I will cheer for Cain.
Cain coming off his first loss (and a bad one at that) is very bad news for Mir. Mir is very good, but I see him getting freight-trained by Cain, who will come at him like a man possessed.
Agree with most of the above but in my own words, Cain has an advantage in wrestling and speed, Mir has an advantage in every other aspect. This fight will be close. Whoever the odds makers are for this are out of their skulls.